By Karen Roman and John Jannarone
The hotly-anticipated 2026 IPO bonanza may turn into a serious battle of the bulge.
When it comes to hiring an investment bank to lead a large IPO, conventional wisdom leads many to so-called bulge bracket firms known for expertise in marketing and pricing deals for success. But as investors await news on who will shepherd the likes of SpaceX, OpenAI and Anthropic to public markets, they may be surprised to see which banks have done their jobs best recently.
Source: Dealogic; IPO Edge Calculations (sorted by first listed underwriter on official offering materials)
Since the start of 2025, Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. (NYSE:GS) has led the pack with 22 deals raising over $100 million, according to Dealogic. Goldman Sachs was followed closely by Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS) and JPMorgan Chase & Co. (NYSE:JPM) with 17 deals apiece.
But while Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley stand high on the league table, the returns on their deals are less impressive. Goldman Sachs deals averaged an 11% gain after the first day of trading but a mere 2% rise after a month and an outright decline of 11% based on recent prices. Morgan Stanley has fared better, with healthier increases of 38% and 20% after a day and a month, respectively, but also averages a slight decrease from IPO price to current levels.
Source: Dealogic; IPO Edge Calculations
The data shed light on a perennial challenge faced by investment bankers: Ensuring the owners who sell into the IPO get a healthy valuation while also hoping for a strong performance for investors who buy into the IPO or purchase shares on the open market.
One veteran IPO investor explained that the problem comes down to generating true enthusiasm and demand beyond the deal itself. Many high profile deals are marketed to similar sets of a few hundred investors. But to ensure longer-term success, companies need to capture the imagination of retail shareholders and along with institutions who wouldn’t have had access to deals.
Another possible problem: The most exciting deals such as SpaceX and OpenAI are likely to flood the market with tens of billions of dollars in new shares, which could lead some investors to save their dry powder. Those investors may want to invest in those deals or at least see how the markets receive them before piling into other deals.
One mistake that should be blamed on both companies and bankers is a soft first quarter. It’s incumbent on both management and their bankers to manage expectations for something that’s relatively predictable. Via Transportation (NYSE:VIA) missed earnings-per-share estimates in its first quarterly report as a public company in November and the shares took a beating.
Others have had multiple rough quarters out of the gates, raising questions about how much serious diligence bankers did. Take Gemini Space Station, Inc. (Nasdaq:GEMI), the crypto exchange led by Cameron and Tyler Winklevoss whose IPO was led by Goldman Sachs. The company has posted a second quarter of disappointing results and the departure of senior managers, likely driving its latest share-price decline.
There are already signs of companies getting spooked – despite hiring white shoe bankers. Fintech-powered broker Clear Street was due to price its IPO last week and revised terms at the midnight hour, cutting the deal to sell 13 million shares at $26–$28 apiece, a fraction of its prior plan to sell 23.8 million shares in a range of $40–$44 each. In the end, it pulled the deal altogether, citing market conditions.
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